On July 8, the Philippines and Japan signed a critical defense agreement that will allow the deployment of troops on each other’s territories. Faced with an increasingly assertive China, the Philippines and Japan, both long-standing allies of the United States, have deepened their defense relationship. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. witnessed the signing of this “Reciprocal Access Agreement.”

Negotiated since November of last year, the agreement provides a legal framework for the deployment of defense personnel to each other’s territories for training and other activities. These negotiations come at a time when China is intensifying its claims over nearly the entire South China Sea, leading to escalating confrontations with Philippine vessels. One of the most severe incidents occurred on June 17, when Chinese coast guard ships clashed with Philippine supply ships near the Second Thomas Shoal (referred to as Ren’ai Reef by China and Ayungin Shoal by the Philippines) in the South China Sea. The Chinese coast guard used knives and spears, injuring Philippine military personnel and damaging two Philippine vessels.

Incident of Grounded Scrap Ship in the South China Sea

The Chinese government accused the Philippines of intentionally grounding a scrapped military ship on a disputed reef in the South China Sea, alleging an attempt to provoke and escalate tensions between the two countries. According to Chinese state media, the ship, a retired vessel from the Philippine Navy, was deliberately placed in disputed waters to reinforce the Philippines’ sovereignty claims in the region.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned this action as “irresponsible and a dangerous provocation.” China asserted that such deliberate grounding violates international law and disrupts the peace and stability of the South China Sea. The Chinese government urged the Philippines to immediately remove the ship and cease all provocative actions to prevent further escalation.

Chinese media emphasized the strategic significance of the location where the scrapped ship was grounded, suggesting that the Philippines’ actions aimed to bolster its military presence in the South China Sea to garner international support. This incident has garnered widespread attention and sparked discussions, with many observers concerned that it could escalate tensions in the region, leading to diplomatic and military confrontations.

However, the Philippines has denied these accusations. The Philippine government stated that the grounding of the ship was accidental rather than intentional. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs reiterated the country’s commitment to resolving the South China Sea disputes peacefully and called for all parties to exercise restraint to avoid escalating the situation further.

This incident highlights the complexity and sensitivity of the South China Sea issue, where every action and reaction from involved parties could potentially escalate tensions and lead to new confrontations. The international community generally urges dialogue and negotiation to resolve disputes and maintain peace and stability in the region.

The Role of the Philippines in the South China Sea Dispute

Of particular interest is the Philippine government’s advocacy and stance in international organizations regarding the South China Sea. How does the Philippines articulate its positions and propose resolutions within the United Nations and its affiliated bodies, especially concerning the South China Sea? These actions not only serve as diplomatic tools but also reflect the Philippines’ commitment to international law and its enforcement.

The Philippine diplomatic policy on the South China Sea involves active participation within the regional security framework, emphasizing multilateral cooperation over unilateral decision-making. The Philippines promotes peace and stability through bilateral dialogues with other claimant states and regional cooperation, highlighting its significant role in regional security affairs. 

For instance, the “Reciprocal Access Agreement” is seen as crucial by analyst Don McLain Gill of De La Salle University in the Philippines. He emphasized its potential to enhance interoperability with like-minded partners and strengthen Manila’s position within the U.S.-centered network, thereby bolstering efforts to enhance security partnerships

Furthermore, bilateral interactions between the Philippines and China, as well as with other claimant states in the South China Sea, are crucial. How does the Philippines seek pathways to resolve disputes through bilateral dialogues or regional cooperation mechanisms? These interactions illustrate how the Philippines balances its sovereignty claims while promoting regional peace and stability.

The Philippine government should expand its proposals and resolutions related to the South China Sea in international organizations, crucial for enforcing international law and maintaining regional security. These efforts highlight how the Philippines leverages multilateral cooperation to expand its influence on the international stage, while steadfastly defending its sovereignty and territorial claims.

President’s Discourse at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore

President Marcos emphasized the importance of national territorial sovereignty and regional peace at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 4, 2024. In his address, he emphasized that territorial disputes in the South China Sea are crucial not only for the Philippines but also for the security and stability of the entire region. He reiterated the Philippines’ commitment to resolving disputes peacefully and expressed hope in upholding freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and the dignity of international law through international cooperation.

President Marcos called on all countries to adhere to international norms such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) when addressing territorial disputes. He emphasized that unilateral actions by any country could lead to regional instability. Through these statements, President Marcos clearly articulated the Philippines’ position and expectations regarding the South China Sea issue, stressing the importance of peaceful dispute resolution and international cooperation.

During the conference, the Chinese representative questioned the Philippines’ diplomatic stance, accusing the Philippines of provocative actions in the South China Sea, particularly referencing the recent incident where the Philippines grounded a decommissioned military vessel on a reef. The Chinese representative pointed out that such actions not only violated international law but also escalated regional tensions. The Philippine representative denied these accusations, reaffirming the Philippines’ commitment to peacefully resolving disputes.

Philippine Actions in the South China Sea Dispute

The Philippine government has adopted an active diplomatic strategy in the South China Sea dispute, emphasizing the peaceful resolution of conflicts. The Philippine Foreign Minister underscored their commitment to international legal frameworks such as UNCLOS and advocated for resolving disputes through multilateral dialogues and cooperation. The government stressed that the Philippines would uphold its territorial sovereignty while avoiding actions that could escalate regional tensions, urging all parties to exercise restraint and seek common solutions.

However, amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea conflict, the Philippines announced on June 12, 2024, its intention to take more aggressive defense measures, proposing a strategy of “close-range defense.” This strategy includes enhancing patrols and monitoring in disputed areas of the South China Sea and taking actual defense actions when necessary. The Philippine government stated that these measures aimed to safeguard national sovereignty and protect the legitimate rights of Filipino fishermen. Simultaneously, on June 14, 2024, the Philippines formally demanded compensation from China, accusing China’s aggressive actions of causing severe economic and environmental damage to the Philippines. 

Unfortunately, following a severe incident on June 17, where the Chinese coast guard intercepted the Philippine Armed Forces during a rotation and resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal, the Philippine military announced on July 4 that it had demanded China pay 60 million Philippine pesos (approximately 1 million USD) as compensation for the equipment damage and losses.

These demands also include compensation for losses suffered by fishermen and the restoration of damaged marine ecosystems. Through these measures and demands, the Philippines demonstrated its determination to defend its sovereignty to the international community while seeking a fair resolution through legal and diplomatic means.

Philippine Media’s Shift in Narrative towards China

Filipino citizens have increasingly expressed concern about their country’s position in the South China Sea dispute. Transitioning from a relatively pro-China stance in the past to current anti-China sentiments, people worry that the Philippines could become a pawn in U.S.-China geopolitical tensions. Particularly since the election of former U.S. President Trump, Filipino citizens fear that the United States may prioritize its own interests, leaving the Philippines to face pressures and provocations from China alone.

Since June 2024, Philippine media narratives about China have undergone significant changes. Previously relatively neutral or even friendly, they have now turned into strong criticisms and vigilance. This shift primarily stems from widespread dissatisfaction within Philippine society over China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea.

Philippine media frequently report incidents of Chinese vessels trespassing into Philippine waters and harassing Filipino fishermen, highlighting these actions as threats to Philippine sovereignty and security. Media outlets also critique China’s Belt and Road Initiative, viewing it as a new form of economic control that could negatively impact Philippine development in the long term. Additionally, Philippine media urge the government to adopt a more assertive stance and enhance cooperation with other countries to address challenges posed by China.

Through these reports and commentaries, Philippine media play a crucial role in shaping public opinion and influencing government policies, becoming a significant force driving the shift in Philippine policies towards China.

Shift from Pro-China to Anti-China Sentiment

In recent years, there has been a significant shift in the attitudes of Filipino citizens, moving from past friendliness and closeness towards China to widespread anti-China sentiment today. This transformation primarily stems from escalating tensions in the South China Sea, particularly China’s assertive actions and expansion activities, which have increasingly fueled dissatisfaction among Filipino citizens. In the past, many Filipinos believed that maintaining friendly relations with China could bring economic benefits and regional stability. However, over time, this viewpoint has been shaken by evolving realities.

Against this backdrop, Filipino citizens are increasingly concerned about their country’s position in the U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry. They worry that the Philippines may become a pawn caught between the power struggles of the two major nations, facing greater pressure and risks. Particularly in case Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, many Filipinos perceive his “America First” policy as a sign that the United States will prioritize its own interests, potentially diminishing support for the Philippines. This exacerbates Filipino concerns about being isolated and unsupported in the South China Sea conflict.

Anti-China sentiment among Filipino citizens is particularly evident in media reports and on social media platforms. Many express dissatisfaction with China’s actions, calling on the government to adopt a tougher stance. Some extreme voices even advocate for severing diplomatic ties with China. The spread of these anti-China sentiments puts greater domestic pressure on the Philippine government to make more cautious and decisive decisions in its diplomatic policies towards handling the South China Sea dispute.

Conclusion

The Philippines plays a pivotal role in the complex dynamics of the South China Sea dispute, leveraging diplomatic strategies to uphold international law and promote peaceful resolutions through multilateral cooperation, including active participation in forums like the United Nations. Recent shifts in Philippine public opinion reflect growing concerns over China’s assertiveness, shaping domestic calls for a more assertive foreign policy stance. As the Philippines navigates these dynamics, it continues to balance safeguarding national interests with fostering regional cooperation, highlighting its commitment to shaping stability in the Indo-Pacific