In recent years, as East Asia’s geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait have become a central focus. The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025 adds a new layer of complexity to the region’s strategic environment, presenting Taiwan with an uncertain but critical future. With a U.S. administration known for its unpredictable and often confrontational approach toward China, Taiwan faces distinct diplomatic and security challenges. This article aims to examine Taiwan’s strategic responses to Trump’s leadership, weighing both the opportunities and risks of this significant shift in global politics.

The Trump Administration’s Approach to Taiwan

Trump’s initial presidency marked a clear departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy, particularly in its aggressive stance toward China. Rooted in an “America First” agenda, his administration focused on challenging China’s economic dominance, imposing tariffs, and prioritizing unilateral U.S. interests over multilateral cooperation. Initially ambiguous, his stance on Taiwan ultimately became more assertive, reflected by increased arms sales and strengthened official exchanges. The fluid nature of Trump’s foreign policy forced Taiwan into a precarious balancing act as it sought to navigate U.S.-China tensions without alienating either power.

With a second Trump presidency, a continuation of his hardline policies toward China seems likely. This could present Taiwan with new opportunities for increased military and economic support from the U.S., especially as Washington seeks to curb China’s expanding influence. However, Taiwan must remain cautious, mindful of the risks that come with Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy moves and the enduring U.S.-China tensions.

Taiwan’s Diplomatic and Economic Strategies

In response to these changing dynamics, Taiwan must actively refine its diplomatic and economic strategies. As a small state surrounded by larger powers, Taiwan’s survival and prosperity hinge on its ability to adeptly navigate complex international relationships and foster robust ties with key players.

Balancing Economic Risks and Diplomatic Gains in CPTPP Engagement. While Taiwan’s ICT sector may see minimal direct gains from joining the CPTPP, primarily due to existing low tariffs, other areas of Taiwan’s economy—particularly agriculture and food production—face notable challenges. The highly competitive CPTPP markets could expose Taiwan’s domestic sectors to intense foreign competition, placing local farmers at risk and threatening Taiwan’s traditional agricultural foundation. As a result, domestic resistance to CPTPP membership has emerged, underscoring the difficult trade-offs Taiwan must weigh.

Nevertheless, despite these economic concerns, CPTPP membership promises significant strategic benefits for Taiwan in two key areas:

Diplomatic Recognition: Joining the CPTPP would boost Taiwan’s international standing and illustrate its commitment to high-standard trade and cooperation. It would signal Taiwan’s alignment with regional economic norms, thereby strengthening ties with major economies like Japan, Canada, and Australia—essential partners in Taiwan’s quest to balance its security and economic alliances.

Strategic Autonomy: Furthermore, CPTPP membership provides Taiwan an opportunity to diversify its alliances, reducing reliance on the U.S. while still cultivating a robust network of economic and strategic partners. This multilateral support structure would allow Taiwan more flexibility in navigating complex regional dynamics, ultimately enhancing its resilience against external pressures from China.

By engaging with the CPTPP, Taiwan can pursue international integration that improves its economic and diplomatic standing without becoming overly reliant on its U.S. alliance. While the risks to domestic sectors are tangible, the symbolic and strategic benefits of CPTPP membership—especially in expanding Taiwan’s international influence—are vital to its long-term positioning in East Asia.

Strengthening Regional Partnerships

One of Taiwan’s most pressing objectives is to reduce its over-reliance on the United States for both security and economic support. While the U.S. remains a critical ally, Taiwan’s long-term security and prosperity require diversified partnerships.

Expanding Relations with ASEAN and Indo-Pacific Countries. To this end, Southeast Asia presents a promising avenue for Taiwan to expand its influence. Launched in 2016, the New Southbound Policy aimed to enhance Taiwan’s relationships with ASEAN countries, India, Australia, and New Zealand. Under a Trump presidency, this policy could gain renewed momentum as a countermeasure to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Leveraging its high-tech and democratic governance model, Taiwan offers a compelling alternative to China’s state-led approach.

For instance, increased trade relations with nations like Vietnam and the Philippines could pave the way for technology partnerships, renewable energy projects, and educational exchanges. Taiwan’s semiconductor and high-tech sectors, in particular, could serve as a core foundation for cooperation that benefits both Taiwan and its Southeast Asian partners. By positioning itself as a regional innovation hub, Taiwan could attract investments, thus strengthening its regional economic presence.

Strengthening Defense Cooperation with Regional Allies. Taiwan should also proactively pursue stronger defense cooperation with regional allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. This could include joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and collaborative defense technologies. For instance, Taiwan could work with these allies on missile defense, cybersecurity, and naval capabilities. These joint training programs would improve coordination, bolster Taiwan’s self-defense capacity, and reduce reliance on U.S. military support, allowing Taiwan greater strategic autonomy.

Leveraging Taiwan’s Role in Global Supply Chains

Taiwan’s technological prowess, especially in semiconductor manufacturing, remains one of its most valuable assets. As China intensifies its efforts to expand its tech capabilities, Taiwan’s leadership in this field grants it unique leverage in both economic and security matters. Under Trump’s administration, Taiwan could further deepen ties with global powers such as Japan, South Korea, and even Europe, reinforcing its position in global supply chains for emerging technologies like AI and 5G infrastructure. By helping countries reduce dependence on China, Taiwan not only enhances its own economic standing but also strengthens its geopolitical influence.

Taiwan’s Long-Term Strategic Goals

Beyond short-term adjustments, Taiwan must strategically position itself for the long term. While Trump’s return presents unique opportunities, it also introduces risks to Taiwan’s security. Taiwan’s long-term strategy should center on building resilience across three critical areas: defense, economic sustainability, and international recognition.

Building Strategic Autonomy through Regional Alliances. Taiwan’s primary goal moving forward should be to cultivate a network of regional alliances that shield it from external pressures. While the U.S. will remain a significant ally, Taiwan must diversify its partnerships with like-minded nations. Participating in multilateral organizations, such as APEC or the East Asia Summit, could further bolster Taiwan’s diplomatic presence.

Promoting Taiwan’s Role as a Global Tech Hub. As the global economy increasingly relies on technology, Taiwan’s expertise in semiconductors uniquely positions it as a key global player. Taiwan could expand this role by investing in industries like AI, green technologies, and biotechnology. Furthermore, Taiwan should actively participate in global tech governance initiatives, advocating for standards that reflect its interests.

Expanding International Recognition. Taiwan’s long-term aim should be achieving broader international recognition. Despite China’s opposition, Taiwan can work with like-minded countries to broaden its unofficial diplomatic presence. Efforts to gain membership in organizations like the WHO and the UN would enhance Taiwan’s reputation as a responsible global actor.

Conclusion

With Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, Taiwan’s path toward greater autonomy has become even more essential. Trump’s leadership presents both opportunities and heightened risks. To navigate this challenging environment, Taiwan is broadening its alliances and reinforcing its defense and economic capacities to ensure resilience.

By strengthening ties with regional allies, advancing its technological leadership, and seeking global recognition, Taiwan positions itself as a vital player in East Asia. Taiwan’s pursuit of public health leadership, environmental sustainability, and tech innovation demonstrates its commitment to addressing global challenges. This balanced approach enables Taiwan to retain its identity and autonomy amidst shifting dynamics.

Ultimately, Taiwan’s future resilience will depend on its ability to proactively adapt to global changes while safeguarding its democratic values. By taking these steps under the uncertainties of a Trump administration, Taiwan can secure its role as an autonomous, indispensable player in East Asia.