More Noise than Signal

Trump’s supporters and apologists suggest that when Trump speaks he should be taken seriously but not literally, or that the near daily flip-flops and changes to already announced policy should be seen as mere noise but behind all of this there is a clear signal.  This sort of handwaving explanation could be applied to the administration’s approach to China.  The China decoupling tariffs of 145% were never really a serious proposal, they were just a negotiating position which in Trump’s mind forced China to the negotiating table claims Trump’s team.  But he has now claimed that China has violated the limited agreement made in Geneva earlier this month but quite what he refers to isn’t clear.  When are his words noise and when are they signal?  Maybe he refers to nothing at all, it all just lies and nonsense.  He is someone to whom lying is second nature, if the lies benefit him or bring him attention then what does it matter?

Such a chaotic approach to government can make “great television” as Trump described his dressing down of Ukraine’s President Zelinski, but it doesn’t lead to clear policy and prepare the country, and its allies for the very real and serious challenges the country faces.  To his credit in his first term Trump was the first US president to call out China for its unfair trade practices and growing aggression in the South China Seas.  And while he did bring in economic sanctions, tariffs and strike the famous and now failed Phase One trade deal he was prepared to say the unsayable about China and brought about a much more realistic and critical discussion within US politics.  In a dysfunction political system where few issues can bring both parties together being tough, and tougher on China is possibly the only issue where there is broad cross-party support.

Listening to What Xi is Saying

Xi Jinping is a very different leader from Donald Trump.  There is none of the showmanship, no open press conferences and rambling answers or speeches.  For the Chinese leadership nothing is spontaneous, all is planned, rehearsed and co-ordinated.  This, not surprisingly, leads to very dull and uninspiring speeches and official pronouncements.  The great Sinologist Simon Leys once described reading party documents as “munching rhinoceros sausage, or to swallowing sawdust by the bucketful.”  The nature of the language used is deliberately deadening and is designed to hide what is meant but it doesn’t mean they should not be read nor believed. 

In early May Xi was in Moscow to commemorate the 80^th anniversary of the end of the Second World War in Europe.  Two documents released to mark that visit make very clear how the Chinese leadership see the future of geopolitics, the first is the Joint Declaration of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Further Strengthening Cooperation to Uphold the Authority of International Law and the second an article in the Russian Gazette newspaper penned by Xi entitled Learning from History to Build Together a Brighter Future.  Both are easily accessible online and both are worth reading because it should dispel any wishful thinking in Europe, America or Asia that China is not fully aligned with Russia when it comes to the Ukrainian conflict.  And it spells out very clearly that Xi is intent on gaining sovereignty over Taiwan.

Even a casual reader of the documents will note the glaring contradictions between what is written and what reality is.  That Russia and China at numerous points in their Joint Declaration “reaffirm the principle that States shall refrain from the threat or use of force”.  They support “non-interference in the internal affairs of states” and the “principle of peaceful settlement of disputes” while never mentioning the Russian invasion of Ukraine shows that Donald Trump has no monopoly on lying.  The two states who are home to some of the most sophisticated and sustained cyber criminals and attacks want to champion “an open, secure, stable, accessible, peaceful and interoperable Information and Communications Technologies environment”!  But ignoring the hypocrisy of the content what is clear is that the two countries are firmly committed to each other.  China isn’t cutting ties with Russia anytime soon, their support for Russia may not extend to manpower or lethal weapons but China remains the primary prop to the Russian economy buying its hydrocarbons, supplying it with all many of daily goods and dual use technologies.

Xi’s article spends much of the time rewriting the history of the Second World War while at the same time championing “a correct historical perspective”.  While he writes about the sacrifices of both the Russian and Chinese people during that time, it is worth noting that the Soviet Union didn’t declare war on Japan until early August 1945, the Chinese Communist Party seldom fought the Japanese as the bulk of the fighting was done by the Nationalist government of the time and indeed Mao claimed it was the Japanese which had allowed the Communists to win the civil war as they had so weakened the Nationalists.  But while the rewriting of history is of note it is the immediate future and specifically Taiwan which is the concern.

Xi writes, “No matter how the situation on the Taiwan island evolves or what troubles external forces may make, the historical trend toward China’s ultimate and inevitable reunification is unstoppable”.  He continues “China and Russia have all along firmly supported each other on issues bearing on our respective core interests or major concerns. Russia has reiterated on many occasions that it strictly adheres to the one-China principle, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, it opposes any form of “Taiwan independence,” and it firmly supports all measures of the Chinese government and the Chinese people to achieve national reunification. China highly commends Russia’s consistent position”.

In a sea of lies and invented history these passages send a simple message.  Xi doesn’t care how things develop in Taiwan, the wishes and aspirations of the 23 million people on the island don’t matter to him.  He sees “reunification” as inevitable and has on paper at least got Russia’s full endorsement of his position.

Such a position should not be news to world leaders or business executives.  Xi has been speaking like this for years and has made his rejuvenation of the Chinese people dependent on the reunification with Taiwan.  In his mind the century of humiliation can never be forgotten as long as Taiwan remains de facto independent and outside the control of the CCP.

But when?

As Taiwan society and politics evolves there seems to be very little chance of the country willingly accepting Communist rule so only through force and coercion will Xi be able to realize his dream, a dream created over the dead bodies of what will be thousands of PRC and Taiwanese nationals.  The question remains one of timing, not intent.

Those within the US military establishment have often focused on 2027 as a possible window.  This date reflects a period where the Chinese military will have a likely advantage over US (and Taiwan) forces given the asymmetric build up of military assets.  The year will mark a century since the founding of the Peoples Liberation Army, which is the Communist Party’s army, not the nation’s army, and politically it will be the end of Xi third term as Party Chairman and the start of his unprecedented fourth term.  Xi won’t live forever, he probably isn’t in that great health, but he only turns 72 in mid-June.  He will very likely take a fourth term, and more unless events intervene.

The military buildup of the PLA is impressive but should not be overestimated.  China has lots of new and sophisticated hardware but none of their leaders or frontline soldiers or sailors have ever seen combat, nor have they coordinated prolonged campaigns between sea, air and land forces.  But China can never overcome that lack of battlefield experience so it will always remain an unknown factor for Xi.  But perhaps a new and welcome development pushing the 2027 timeline is Trump in the White House.  Will two years of chaos and policy flip-flops make Xi think he’ll never get a better chance?

Planning and Preparing

Trump dislikes wars, that clearly is a virtue, and one would therefore assume that he will only very reluctantly send troops overseas or conduct military strikes abroad.  Yet he has already done so firing missiles at the Houthis in Yemen although with limited success.  This mix of dislike of foreign military adventures coupled with the policy chaos which he generates on a daily basis could embolden Xi to act while Trump is still president.

After two years of Trumpian policy chaos will the traditional allies of America still be able to come together to deter China?  The answer can be yes, but it will be difficult and importantly it depends on ignoring much of the noise that Trump generates and looking beyond him to the Congress and those in his cabinet who do realize the threat that China poses and more importantly the need to cooperate and prepare for deterrence.

Back in 2007 Putin made a now infamous speech at the Munich security conference where he railed against the unipolar world and NATO.  That was his public turn away from the West and that ultimately led of the invasion of Georgia the following year and then his expansion into Ukraine in the following decade.  Xi has been making such speeches railing against America and his desire to control Taiwan since he came to power.  He should be believed because he believes in what he is saying.  It is vital that other countries take him seriously and prepare accordingly.

One of the key requirements for the defend of Taiwan will be the arming of Taiwan.  First and foremost, it will be Taiwanese who will be in the front-line positions.  That requires them to be well stocked with advanced weapons systems and trained to use it.  This has been happening, but it needs to continue and expand.  The same serious intent is needed across Asian and European allies when it comes to rearmament. 

Any military operation is never easy, and the invasion of Taiwan would be a staggeringly difficult operation even if everything went well.  Most military analysts assumed the might of the Russia army would over run Ukraine within days or weeks, yet three years later and hundreds of thousands of soldiers dead Russian gains are meager.  Xi no doubt understands this and whatever he thinks, and does he isn’t a reckless man, but he is a determined man.

Deterrence will require countries to work together both militarily and economically.  Xi will have been concerned by the slow military progress of the Russia army but possibly more worried by the sanctions and seizures of Russian assets overseas.  He has tried with limited success to wean China off foreign dependency, but China remains hugely integrated into the world economy and dependent on imports for many raw and important commodities.  Economic sanctions can be as useful a deterrent as military assets.

China is the signal amongst all the noise of the Trump White House, it is important then that allies of America and Taiwan align their efforts and take seriously what Xi Jinping says.  Distracted by the daily spectacle of the Donald Show shouldn’t allow the Xi Jinping the chance to realize his Chinese dream.