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Will China’s ‘Iron Rice Bowl’ Collapse? Lessons from Bangladesh
バングラで政府職の割当て制度廃止を巡り衝突(写真:AP/アフロ)
バングラで政府職の割当て制度廃止を巡り衝突(写真:AP/アフロ)

The Problem and Impact of Bangladesh’s Civil Service System

Following its independence in 1971, Bangladesh introduced a policy that allocated 30% of civil service positions to veterans and their descendants. Initially, this policy was a gesture of gratitude toward those who had sacrificed for the country’s independence. However, as Bangladesh’s socio-economic conditions evolved, this policy began to create unintended consequences. The rapid growth in population and the rising number of university graduates led to increasing unemployment, particularly among the youth. The quota system, once seen as a rightful reward for veterans, increasingly became a source of contention as it appeared to impede fair employment opportunities.

The situation reached a critical point when the quota system was reinstated in 2018, despite widespread public dissatisfaction. The government’s decision to reimplement this policy highlighted a significant flaw in the policymaking process: a failure to adapt long-standing policies to the changing needs of society. This rigidity is not unique to Bangladesh but is common in many countries where entrenched policies persist without sufficient consideration of contemporary relevance.

Widespread protests erupted in response to the reinstatement of the quota system, leading to its eventual abolition. However, in June 2023, the Bangladesh Supreme Court reinstated the quota system once again, sparking even more intense social unrest. The ensuing protests, which resulted in hundreds of deaths, underscored the deep frustrations of a populace that felt marginalized by an outdated and unfair system. The inability of Prime Minister Hasina’s government to manage the political fallout from this issue ultimately led to her resignation and exile, highlighting severe governance and leadership failures.

This series of events in Bangladesh offers a cautionary tale for other nations, including China. It demonstrates how an entrenched and unjust civil service system, coupled with unresponsive leadership, can lead to the rapid collapse of a regime. Rigid adherence to outdated policies, even amidst widespread public dissatisfaction, can erode a government’s legitimacy and precipitate its downfall. For China, where the “iron rice bowl” system has long been a cornerstone of civil service employment, the situation in Bangladesh serves as a stark warning of the potential consequences of ignoring the need for reform.

The Legacy of Bloodline Theory in China

“Bloodline theory” (血統論) has deeply influenced Chinese politics, particularly during the Cultural Revolution, when it was used to determine social status and political loyalty based on family background. The Communist Party’s “family rule” doctrine emphasized lineage as a key determinant of one’s political and social standing, leading to widespread discrimination against those from “bad” class backgrounds. This rigid system of social classification had devastating effects, perpetuating inequality and stifling social mobility.

Yu Luoke (遇羅克), a young intellectual, famously challenged the “bloodline theory” in his essay “Theory of Origins”(出身論), arguing against the notion that “heroes beget heroes, and reactionaries beget scoundrels.” His critique exposed the inherent flaws and injustices of this ideology, and while Yu was executed for his views, his essay became a symbol of resistance against the social rigidity of the time.

Despite the end of the Cultural Revolution, the influence of “bloodline theory” persists in contemporary Chinese society. Today, the children of many high-ranking officials continue to enjoy privileged positions within the civil service, perpetuating inequality and undermining meritocracy. This entrenched inequality not only challenges the fairness of the “iron rice bowl” system but also exacerbates social tensions, particularly in the context of high unemployment among university graduates.

Transition to Privilege Class: A Broader Perspective on Social Inequality

While the historical and ideological legacy of lineage-based status, encapsulated in the “bloodline theory,” has undeniably shaped the foundations of China’s social and political landscape, the modern era demands a more expansive lens to fully understand the dynamics at play within the civil service system. The “bloodline theory” primarily highlights the influence of family background and lineage in determining one’s opportunities, particularly during the Cultural Revolution. 

However, as China’s socio-economic fabric has evolved, other forms of privilege—such as social connections, wealth, access to education, and political affiliations—have become equally significant in perpetuating inequality. These broader forms of advantage, better captured under the umbrella of “privilege theory,” encompass a wide array of social and economic factors that influence an individual’s prospects within the civil service and beyond. Transitioning from a focus solely on “bloodline” to “privilege” allows for a more comprehensive analysis of the systemic inequalities that persist in modern China, reflecting the complexities of contemporary social stratification.

The Impact of Privilege and Official Corruption

The case of Ma Xiangyu (馬翔宇), a Tsinghua University graduate, exemplifies the impact of privilege and official corruption on individuals within the civil service system. Despite his academic achievements and qualifications, Ma Xiangyu faced significant challenges in his career due to his lack of a privileged background. His decision to expose his superior’s corruption was a courageous act, intended to promote lawful conduct and improve the official environment. However, Ma Xiangyu’s experience also highlights the broader issue of systemic corruption and the reliance on individual whistleblowers rather than systemic reforms to address these issues.

The difficulties faced by whistleblowers like Ma Xiangyu underscore the need for stronger protections and support systems for exposing corruption. Without a robust framework to protect whistleblowers, a culture of impunity persists, discouraging individuals from coming forward and perpetuating the cycle of corruption. Ma Xiangyu’s case illustrates the inherent unfairness within the “iron rice bowl” system and the significant challenges faced by those who lack the connections to navigate the corrupt environment successfully.

The persistence of corruption within the civil service, despite individual efforts to expose it, reflects the inadequacy of current reform mechanisms. Effective reform should address both systemic issues and individual misconduct to restore trust in the civil service. Without comprehensive reforms, the “iron rice bowl” system risks becoming a liability for the Chinese government, fostering inequality and social discontent.

Future Risks and Challenges for China’s “Iron Rice Bowl” System

China currently produces over 13 million university graduates annually, and high unemployment is exacerbating job market pressures. In this context, the Chinese government faces the challenge of ensuring fairness within the “iron rice bowl” system (鐵飯碗), which refers to a model of lifetime employment and job security provided by the state or government, particularly in public sector jobs. The persistence of such outdated practices reflects a disconnection from contemporary socio-economic realities and underscores the need for reforms that align with modern economic and social contexts.

High levels of unemployment among university graduates pose a significant risk to social stability in China. As more young people struggle to find stable employment, the fairness of the “iron rice bowl” system comes under increased scrutiny. The system’s perceived inequities, particularly in terms of privilege and corruption, contribute to growing disillusionment among the younger generation, who feel excluded from opportunities that should be merit-based.

The challenges facing China’s “iron rice bowl” system are complex and multifaceted. They include not only the legacy of bloodline theory and systemic corruption but also the broader issue of adapting to a rapidly changing economic environment. The Chinese government has implemented various reforms over the years to address these challenges, but many of these efforts have been piecemeal and insufficient to address the root causes of the problem.

Failure to address these issues effectively could lead to unrest similar to that seen in Bangladesh. The collapse of Prime Minister Hasina’s regime in Bangladesh provides a profound lesson for the Chinese government. The government’s failure to address the underlying causes of social discontent, including unemployment and the unfair distribution of opportunities, led to widespread protests and ultimately, political instability.

China must learn from Bangladesh’s experience and take proactive measures to reform the “iron rice bowl” system before it becomes a source of significant social unrest. Current reform strategies may be insufficient to address the complex issues facing the system. A more nuanced approach is required to tackle both systemic inequities and external pressures, ensuring that the civil service system is fair and merit-based.

To address these challenges, several measures are recommended. First, reform the civil service recruitment system to establish transparent and open procedures, reducing the impact of privilege and ensuring fair competition for all applicants. Second, enhance ethical standards for civil servants by strengthening supervision and accountability mechanisms, establishing effective monitoring bodies, and imposing strict penalties for illegal conduct. Third, promote fair opportunities in society by increasing support for low-income and disadvantaged groups, narrowing the wealth gap, and improving social fairness. Finally, revise economic policies to balance the protection of state-owned enterprises and local government “iron rice bowls” with efforts to promote social fairness, thereby mitigating social conflicts and achieving common prosperity.

Conclusion

The collapse of the “iron rice bowl” in China is not inevitable, but it requires urgent and comprehensive reforms. By learning from the experiences of other nations and addressing the root causes of social discontent, the Chinese government can ensure that the civil service system remains a source of stability rather than unrest. The lessons from Bangladesh provide valuable insights into the potential consequences of inaction and the need for proactive leadership in addressing systemic inequalities.

陳建甫博士、淡江大学中国大陸研究所所長(2020年~)(副教授)、新南向及び一帯一路研究センター所長(2018年~)。 研究テーマは、中国の一帯一路インフラ建設、中国のシャープパワー、中国社会問題、ASEAN諸国・南アジア研究、新南向政策、アジア選挙・議会研究など。オハイオ州立大学で博士号を取得し、2006年から2008年まで淡江大学未来学研究所所長を務めた。 台湾アジア自由選挙観測協会(TANFREL)の創設者及び名誉会長であり、2010年フィリピン(ANFREL)、2011年タイ(ANFREL)、2012年モンゴル(Women for Social Progress WSP)、2013年マレーシア(Bersih)、2013年カンボジア(COMFREL)、2013年ネパール(ANFREL)、2015年スリランカ、2016年香港、2017年東ティモール、2018年マレーシア(TANFREL)、2019年インドネシア(TANFREL)、2019年フィリピン(TANFREL)など数多くのアジア諸国の選挙観測任務に参加した。 台湾の市民社会問題に積極的に関与し、公民監督国会連盟の常務理事(2007年~2012年)、議会のインターネットビデオ中継チャネルを提唱するグループ(VOD)の招集者(2012年~)、台湾平和草の根連合の理事長(2008年~2013年)、台湾世代教育基金会の理事(2014年~2019年)などを歴任した。現在は、台湾民主化基金会理事(2018年~)、台湾2050教育基金会理事(2020年~)、台湾中国一帯一路研究会理事長(2020年~)、『淡江国際・地域研究季刊』共同発行人などを務めている。 // Chien-Fu Chen(陳建甫) is an associate professor, currently serves as the Chair, Graduate Institute of China Studies, Tamkang University, TAIWAN (2020-). Dr. Chen has worked the Director, the Center of New Southbound Policy and Belt Road Initiative (NSPBRI) since 2018. Dr. Chen focuses on China’s RRI infrastructure construction, sharp power, and social problems, Indo-Pacific strategies, and Asian election and parliamentary studies. Prior to that, Dr. Chen served as the Chair, Graduate Institute of Future Studies, Tamkang University (2006-2008) and earned the Ph.D. from the Ohio State University, USA. Parallel to his academic works, Dr. Chen has been actively involved in many civil society organizations and activities. He has been as the co-founder, president, Honorary president, Taiwan Asian Network for Free Elections(TANFREL) and attended many elections observation mission in Asia countries, including Philippine (2010), Thailand (2011), Mongolian (2012), Malaysia (2013 and 2018), Cambodian (2013), Nepal (2013), Sri Lanka (2015), Hong Kong (2016), Timor-Leste (2017), Indonesia (2019) and Philippine (2019). Prior to election mission, Dr. Chen served as the Standing Director of the Citizen Congress Watch (2007-2012) and the President of Taiwan Grassroots Alliance for Peace (2008-2013) and Taiwan Next Generation Educational Foundation (2014-2019). Dr. Chen works for the co-founders, president of China Belt Road Studies Association(CBRSA) and co-publisher Tamkang Journal of International and Regional Studies Quarterly (Chinese Journal). He also serves as the trustee board of Taiwan Foundation for Democracy(TFD) and Taiwan 2050 Educational Foundation.