言語別アーカイブ
基本操作
Navigating Cross-Strait Relations: Assessing President Tsai’s Diplomatic Strategy
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen(提供:Taiwan Presidential Office/AP/アフロ)
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen(提供:Taiwan Presidential Office/AP/アフロ)

Introduction

President Tsai Ing-wen’s leadership of Taiwan has been marked by a dynamic interplay of challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of cross-strait relations with mainland China. As her tenure is evaluated historically, her approach to Taiwan’s China mainland policy stands as a pivotal aspect of her legacy. Throughout her presidency, President Tsai has grappled with the intricate task of steering Taiwan’s relationship with mainland China while steadfastly upholding the island’s sovereignty, democratic principles, and security interests.

This essay endeavors to conduct a thorough examination of four key issues central to President Tsai’s Taiwan-China mainland policy. These issues encompass defending Taiwan’s sovereignty, diversifying diplomacy, fostering economic resilience, and strengthening defense and security. Furthermore, the essay aims to provide detailed descriptions of each issue and analyze their significance within the broader context of China’s military and economic force under President Xi Jinping’s leadership.

Moreover, the essay seeks to summarize the pros and cons of President Tsai’s Taiwan-China mainland policy, shedding light on critical areas such as the defense of Taiwan’s sovereignty, the expansion of diplomatic ties, economic adaptability, and the fortification of national security. By delving into these dimensions, we endeavor to gain a comprehensive understanding of the achievements and challenges faced by President Tsai’s administration in navigating cross-strait relations and shaping Taiwan’s trajectory for the future.

Defending Taiwan’s Sovereignty

Defending Taiwan’s sovereignty encompasses safeguarding the island’s autonomy and democratic values amidst mounting pressure and threats from mainland China. President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration has embraced a resolute stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty, rejecting mainland China’s “One Country, Two Systems” framework while underscoring the significance of Taiwan’s democratic principles and right to self-determination.

Challenges from China, under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, has witnessed a significant augmentation in its military capabilities and assertiveness across the Asia-Pacific region. The defense of Taiwan’s sovereignty becomes imperative in deterring potential military aggression from mainland China, given Beijing’s view of Taiwan as an integral part of its territory and its refusal to preclude the use of force for reunification.

President Xi Jinping’s fervent advocacy of the “China Dream” and the vision of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” has sparked apprehensions regarding Beijing’s intentions towards Taiwan. Against the backdrop of China’s burgeoning military prowess, safeguarding Taiwan’s sovereignty becomes increasingly vital to upholding regional stability and thwarting any attempts by Beijing to forcibly annex Taiwan.

Moreover, Taiwan’s sovereignty is intricately intertwined with its economic prosperity and international standing. Any erosion of Taiwan’s autonomy could reverberate profoundly across its economy and diplomatic relations, heightening the urgency for President Tsai’s administration to steadfastly uphold Taiwan’s sovereignty and democratic values amidst mounting pressure from mainland China.

President Tsai’s unwavering commitment to Taiwan’s sovereignty has been a cornerstone of her administration’s Taiwan-China mainland policy. By rebuffing the “One Country, Two Systems” model advocated by mainland China, she has championed the will of the Taiwanese people and safeguarded Taiwan’s democratic ethos. This steadfast defense of sovereignty has earned commendation for preserving Taiwan’s autonomy and identity amid escalating pressure from Beijing.

Central to President Tsai’s approach is her steadfast support for Taiwan’s democratic principles. Throughout her tenure, she has consistently emphasized the paramount importance of democracy and human rights, resonating deeply with the Taiwanese populace who cherish their hard-earned liberties and vehemently oppose any encroachments upon them.

Furthermore, President Tsai’s resolute stance on sovereignty has bolstered Taiwan’s international standing and garnered solidarity from the global community. By staunchly advocating for Taiwan’s right to self-determination, she has elevated Taiwan’s profile on the world stage, reinforcing its status as a responsible member of the international community.

Nonetheless, President Tsai’s steadfast defense of sovereignty has engendered heightened tensions and political acrimony with mainland China. Beijing perceives Taiwan as a recalcitrant province and has persistently exerted pressure on President Tsai’s administration to acquiesce to its “One China” principle. Consequently, cross-strait relations have strained, with both sides engaging in verbal sparring and intermittent military maneuvers.

Critics contend that President Tsai’s refusal to acknowledge the “1992 Consensus” – an understanding acknowledging the existence of “one China” while allowing divergent interpretations – has impeded efforts to ameliorate cross-strait relations. They argue that by rebuffing this framework, President Tsai has obstructed meaningful dialogue and negotiation with Beijing, exacerbating tensions and heightening the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

Moreover, President Tsai’s unwavering defense of sovereignty has rendered Taiwan diplomatically isolated on the global stage. Mainland China’s burgeoning influence has prompted numerous nations to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of closer relations with Beijing. This diplomatic isolation has curtailed Taiwan’s capacity to engage with the international community and address pressing global challenges.

Diversification of Diplomacy

Diversification of diplomacy entails expanding Taiwan’s international relationships beyond mainland China and strengthening ties with democratic allies and like-minded nations. President Tsai’s “New Southbound Policy” aims to enhance Taiwan’s engagement with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as other regions such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and beyond.

China’s burgeoning economic and political influence poses a significant challenge to Taiwan’s international standing and diplomatic relations. Beijing actively seeks to diplomatically isolate Taiwan and pressure countries into severing ties with Taipei in favor of closer relations with mainland China.

In this context, diversification of diplomacy is vital for Taiwan to mitigate the impact of China’s coercive tactics and maintain a robust presence on the global stage. By deepening ties with democratic allies and like-minded nations, Taiwan can bolster its diplomatic resilience and reduce its vulnerability to mainland China’s pressure tactics.

Moreover, diversification of diplomacy is critical for Taiwan to expand its economic opportunities and promote regional stability and prosperity. By fostering closer economic and cultural exchanges with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan can enhance its economic resilience and contribute to the development and prosperity of the region as a whole.

President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on China’s global leadership role and the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative underscores the significance of Taiwan’s diversification of diplomacy. As China endeavors to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond, Taiwan must actively engage with the international community and advocate for its values and interests on the global stage.

In response to Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation, President Tsai’s administration has pursued a proactive strategy of diversifying Taiwan’s diplomatic relationships beyond mainland China. The “New Southbound Policy” has succeeded in expanding Taiwan’s international reach and influence. By cultivating closer ties with countries such as the United States, Japan, and European nations, Taiwan has enhanced its diplomatic resilience and reduced its vulnerability to mainland China’s pressure tactics.

President Tsai’s efforts to deepen Taiwan’s engagement with the international community have been widely praised for promoting Taiwan’s values and interests globally. Participation in international forums and organizations such as the World Health Assembly and the International Civil Aviation Organization has demonstrated Taiwan’s commitment to contributing to the international community despite diplomatic challenges.

However, President Tsai’s diversification strategy has encountered significant challenges, particularly in the face of mainland China’s efforts to undermine Taiwan’s international standing. Beijing’s economic and political leverage has pressured countries into severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan, exacerbating its diplomatic predicament.

Critics argue that President Tsai’s diversification strategy has failed to address Taiwan’s diplomatic challenges effectively and has not substantially improved Taiwan’s international recognition. Despite efforts to deepen ties with democratic allies, Taiwan continues to face diplomatic hurdles and remains excluded from crucial international forums and organizations.

Furthermore, President Tsai’s diversification strategy has strained cross-strait relations and raised the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing perceives Taiwan’s efforts to expand its international presence as a challenge to its sovereignty and has cautioned against any attempts to challenge its authority.

Economic Resilience

Economic resilience refers to Taiwan’s capacity to withstand external shocks and disruptions, including changes in cross-strait relations or global economic uncertainties. President Tsai’s administration has prioritized promoting economic diversification and fostering innovation-driven growth to diminish Taiwan’s reliance on mainland China and bolster its long-term economic stability.

China’s ascendancy in the global economy and its escalating assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region present both challenges and opportunities for Taiwan’s economic landscape. While mainland China remains Taiwan’s primary trading partner and a significant source of investment, heightened economic interdependence exposes Taiwan to risks such as trade disputes, investment limitations, and market access barriers instigated by Beijing.

In this milieu, economic resilience assumes paramount importance for Taiwan to navigate the intricacies of cross-strait relations while preserving its economic competitiveness amidst China’s economic prowess. By championing economic diversification and innovation-driven growth, Taiwan can mitigate its dependence on mainland China and explore untapped markets and burgeoning industries.

Moreover, economic resilience is indispensable for addressing domestic challenges such as stagnant wages, escalating living costs, and a burgeoning wealth chasm. By nurturing a dynamic and inclusive economy, Taiwan can fortify its social stability and prosperity, ensuring equitable distribution of economic benefits across society.

President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on economic development and China’s expanding global economic influence underscores the significance of Taiwan’s economic resilience. As China endeavors to augment its economic sway in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond, Taiwan must fortify its economic fundamentals and foster sustainable and inclusive growth to sustain its competitive edge in the global arena.

President Tsai’s administration has proactively pursued strategies to diminish Taiwan’s economic reliance on mainland China and augment economic diversification and innovation-driven growth. These endeavors have been lauded for fortifying Taiwan’s long-term economic resilience and mitigating vulnerability to disruptions in cross-strait relations.

A pivotal strength of President Tsai’s economic policies lies in their efficacy in attracting foreign investment and stimulating entrepreneurship and innovation. By channeling investments into critical sectors like biotechnology, information technology, and renewable energy, Taiwan has positioned itself as a frontrunner in emerging industries, thereby diminishing dependence on traditional manufacturing and exports.

Additionally, President Tsai’s administration has implemented initiatives to bolster small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and startups, fostering a more dynamic and inclusive economy. By nurturing entrepreneurship and innovation, Taiwan has bolstered its competitiveness on the global stage and poised itself for sustained growth in the foreseeable future.

Nevertheless, President Tsai’s economic strategies have encountered obstacles, notably in the face of mainland China’s endeavors to curtail Taiwan’s access to its market and disrupt cross-strait economic ties. Beijing has imposed punitive measures on Taiwan in response to President Tsai’s refusal to endorse its “One China” principle, including restrictions on cross-strait trade and investment.

Critics contend that President Tsai’s economic policies have not sufficiently addressed Taiwan’s economic vulnerabilities and have failed to yield significant enhancements in its economic prospects. Despite endeavors to promote economic diversification and innovation, Taiwan grapples with challenges like stagnant wages, mounting living costs, and a widening wealth gap.

Furthermore, President Tsai’s economic initiatives have strained cross-strait relations and heightened the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing perceives Taiwan’s efforts to diminish its economic dependence on mainland China as a threat to its authority and has cautioned against any endeavors to undermine its sovereignty.

Strengthening Defense and Security

Enhancing defense and security involves fortifying Taiwan’s military capabilities and strategic partnerships to deter potential aggression from mainland China and uphold peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. President Tsai’s administration has placed a premium on bolstering Taiwan’s defense capabilities and fostering deeper cooperation with key allies, notably the United States.

China’s rapid military modernization and escalating assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region pose substantial challenges to Taiwan’s security and stability. Beijing’s substantial increase in military expenditure and expansion of naval and air capabilities have sparked concerns regarding its intentions towards Taiwan.

In this landscape, fortifying defense and security holds paramount importance for Taiwan to dissuade potential military aggression from mainland China and safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. By investing in advanced weaponry, enhancing cybersecurity defenses, and deepening collaboration with key allies, Taiwan can bolster its deterrence capabilities and protect its security interests.

Moreover, strengthening defense and security is imperative for Taiwan to uphold its sovereignty and democratic ethos amidst mounting pressure from mainland China. By maintaining a credible defense stance and fostering collaboration with like-minded nations, Taiwan can underscore its commitment to defending its autonomy and values, deterring any attempts by Beijing to undermine its sovereignty.

President Xi Jinping’s advocacy for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and China’s burgeoning military capabilities underscore the critical nature of Taiwan’s defense and security. As China endeavors to augment its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region and assert its dominance in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan must remain vigilant and invest in its defense capabilities to preserve peace and stability in the region.

President Tsai’s administration has prioritized bolstering Taiwan’s defense capabilities and deepening collaboration with key allies, particularly the United States. This approach has garnered acclaim for safeguarding Taiwan’s security interests and dissuading potential aggression from mainland China.

A pivotal strength of President Tsai’s defense policies lies in their efficacy in augmenting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and resilience in the face of escalating military threats from mainland China. By investing in cutting-edge weaponry, fortifying cybersecurity defenses, and enhancing asymmetric warfare capabilities, Taiwan has fortified its ability to counter potential threats.

Furthermore, President Tsai’s administration has forged deeper ties with the United States under the purview of the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances. This strategic partnership has buttressed Taiwan’s defense posture and granted access to advanced military technology and training, bolstering its deterrence capabilities in the Taiwan Strait.

However, President Tsai’s defense policies have encountered challenges, notably in light of mainland China’s efforts to modernize its military and amplify its presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Beijing has cautioned against any attempts to challenge its authority in the Taiwan Strait and has issued threats of force if necessary to achieve reunification with Taiwan.

Critics argue that President Tsai’s defense policies have escalated the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait and impeded efforts to ameliorate cross-strait relations. Beijing perceives Taiwan’s strides to fortify its defense capabilities as a threat to its sovereignty and has cautioned against any endeavors to challenge its authority.

Moreover, President Tsai’s defense policies have strained relations with mainland China and raised apprehensions about the potential for military escalation in the Taiwan Strait. Despite endeavors to uphold peace and stability in the region, tensions between Taiwan and mainland China persist, heightening the risk of conflict and instability in the Taiwan Strait.

Conclusion

President Tsai Ing-wen’s Taiwan-China mainland policy has been a nuanced balancing act, marked by both achievements and challenges. Throughout her tenure, she has steadfastly defended Taiwan’s sovereignty and democratic principles, earning praise for upholding the island’s autonomy and identity. However, this firm stance has also led to heightened tensions and political confrontation with mainland China.

Moreover, President Tsai’s efforts to diversify Taiwan’s diplomacy and promote economic resilience have been commendable, enhancing Taiwan’s international standing and economic competitiveness. Yet, these endeavors have faced significant challenges in the face of mainland China’s pressure tactics.

As President Tsai’s tenure is evaluated historically, her approach to managing cross-strait relations will undoubtedly be a central aspect of her legacy. It will shape Taiwan’s future trajectory and its relations with mainland China for years to come. As Taiwan continues to navigate the complexities of cross-strait relations, it remains crucial to strike a delicate balance between defending sovereignty and pursuing opportunities for engagement, ensuring Taiwan’s security and prosperity in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.

陳建甫博士、淡江大学中国大陸研究所所長(2020年~)(副教授)、新南向及び一帯一路研究センター所長(2018年~)。 研究テーマは、中国の一帯一路インフラ建設、中国のシャープパワー、中国社会問題、ASEAN諸国・南アジア研究、新南向政策、アジア選挙・議会研究など。オハイオ州立大学で博士号を取得し、2006年から2008年まで淡江大学未来学研究所所長を務めた。 台湾アジア自由選挙観測協会(TANFREL)の創設者及び名誉会長であり、2010年フィリピン(ANFREL)、2011年タイ(ANFREL)、2012年モンゴル(Women for Social Progress WSP)、2013年マレーシア(Bersih)、2013年カンボジア(COMFREL)、2013年ネパール(ANFREL)、2015年スリランカ、2016年香港、2017年東ティモール、2018年マレーシア(TANFREL)、2019年インドネシア(TANFREL)、2019年フィリピン(TANFREL)など数多くのアジア諸国の選挙観測任務に参加した。 台湾の市民社会問題に積極的に関与し、公民監督国会連盟の常務理事(2007年~2012年)、議会のインターネットビデオ中継チャネルを提唱するグループ(VOD)の招集者(2012年~)、台湾平和草の根連合の理事長(2008年~2013年)、台湾世代教育基金会の理事(2014年~2019年)などを歴任した。現在は、台湾民主化基金会理事(2018年~)、台湾2050教育基金会理事(2020年~)、台湾中国一帯一路研究会理事長(2020年~)、『淡江国際・地域研究季刊』共同発行人などを務めている。 // Chien-Fu Chen(陳建甫) is an associate professor, currently serves as the Chair, Graduate Institute of China Studies, Tamkang University, TAIWAN (2020-). Dr. Chen has worked the Director, the Center of New Southbound Policy and Belt Road Initiative (NSPBRI) since 2018. Dr. Chen focuses on China’s RRI infrastructure construction, sharp power, and social problems, Indo-Pacific strategies, and Asian election and parliamentary studies. Prior to that, Dr. Chen served as the Chair, Graduate Institute of Future Studies, Tamkang University (2006-2008) and earned the Ph.D. from the Ohio State University, USA. Parallel to his academic works, Dr. Chen has been actively involved in many civil society organizations and activities. He has been as the co-founder, president, Honorary president, Taiwan Asian Network for Free Elections(TANFREL) and attended many elections observation mission in Asia countries, including Philippine (2010), Thailand (2011), Mongolian (2012), Malaysia (2013 and 2018), Cambodian (2013), Nepal (2013), Sri Lanka (2015), Hong Kong (2016), Timor-Leste (2017), Indonesia (2019) and Philippine (2019). Prior to election mission, Dr. Chen served as the Standing Director of the Citizen Congress Watch (2007-2012) and the President of Taiwan Grassroots Alliance for Peace (2008-2013) and Taiwan Next Generation Educational Foundation (2014-2019). Dr. Chen works for the co-founders, president of China Belt Road Studies Association(CBRSA) and co-publisher Tamkang Journal of International and Regional Studies Quarterly (Chinese Journal). He also serves as the trustee board of Taiwan Foundation for Democracy(TFD) and Taiwan 2050 Educational Foundation.