Trump Returns

Donald Trump’s second US election victory will keep historians debating and writing about what might have been for decades to come.  The range of counterfactuals is endless; should Biden have run in the first place?  Should Kamala Harris have been “anointed” as the candidate?  What if Trump hadn’t turned his head at just the right moment to find himself only grazed by the assassin’s bullet?  That Trump becomes the first convicted felon to be voted to the highest office in the land should matter but not having a criminal record isn’t a requirement to become President of the United States.  Indeed, since the electorate knew that Trump had slept with porn star Stormy Daniels and still voted for him in 2016 why should the fact that he then falsified his business accounts to pay her off cause the same electorate any greater concern?

While the Republican party took a clean sweep in the elections winning the presidency and majorities in the senate and congress it is worth noting that Trump, although clearly beating Harris, polled slightly under 50% of the vote.  A selection of minor independent candidate took around 1.6% of the votes showing that the election was not the landslide that Trump and the Republican party like to claim.  America is a very divided country, it was 4 years ago, it was 8 years ago and if anything, the divisions have only intensified.  It is hard to see how anyone outside of the United States, or those inside the country should take comfort from this reality.

Whatever the divisions the reality is that Trump did win.  The Democrat party leaders nor their pundits have followed Trump into the cesspit of the “big lie” to try and claim the election was stolen.  They are not claiming “massive voter fraud” as Trump did early on election night before the results were clear.  And so perhaps Trump winning by a clear but small margin was the less dangerous outcome because if Trump had lost then he would no doubt have resorted to even more extreme rhetoric than he had back on 6 January 2021 when a mob of his supports invaded the Capitol building in Washington DC.

What now?

There is not a country in the world that is not nervous about what comes next under Trump 2.0.  Trump’s America First narrative doesn’t value alliances or allies.  Everything is transactional with Trump and every country is in his sights in some way or another.  Significant new tariffs on China will not be surprising, Biden continued and strengthened the sanction and tariff regime on China but Trump has already given notice to Mexico and Canada that 25% tariffs will be applied on day 1 of his administration.  Has he forgotten that the current trade arrangements with those countries were formulated as the USMCA under his own presidency?

There is an argument that it’s all been seen before.  The world came through Trump’s first term so what will really be different this time?  Trump’s very nature doesn’t allow for coordinate or effective policy so those who worry about the most extreme rhetoric, dare we even call it policy, are over thinking things because Trump’s chaotic management style coupled with internal bickering between his followers and appointees will result in little lasting damage being done.  Perhaps the most optimistic scenario for Trump’s second reign in it will be shambolic and ultimately entertaining!

Entertainment is an appropriate word when it comes to Trump.  Many in his voter base sees him as a successful businessman yet that image is one created in the world of reality TV via the show The Apprentice.  Throughout the 1980s Trump ran a slew of casinos and resorts which resulted in him becoming a serial bankrupt leaving hordes of unpaid workers and suppliers.  Always a larger-than-life figure he truly was one of those “only in America” characters yet actual business success was very limited.  No one would put Trump alongside the great modern business leaders of modern America like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Warren Buffet or Jack Welch.

So what will Trump actually do?  What does he want to do and does he actually have the right team to execute his policies?  What is clear, and was clear last time as well, is that Trump’s presidency resembles a medieval court rather than a modern cabinet of qualified and experienced politicians and professionals.  Trump’s appointees for many positions have already raised eyebrows and real concern in some areas.  His first pick for attorney general. Matt Gaetz, had to step down with days of his announcement as he was dogged by rumours of sex-trafficking and having sex with minors.  While the allegations have not been proven the very idea that such an individual should be put forward for the top legal job in government simply defies belief.  Other picks while not as unsavoury are still far from comforting.  Tulsi Gabbard at times seems like a Russian backed stooge listening to her speeches yet she is to be the head of national intelligence.  And former TV host, Pete Hegseth, an ex-army veteran, is proposed as head of the military.  Neither have experience of running such large and complex departments but they are illustrative of Trump picking people who says what he wants to hear.  To Trump being a TV pundit is all the qualifications needed to run a great department of state.  The other remarkable selection is Robert F Kennedy Junior.  He is to run the department of health but he has spent decades spreading conspiracy theories about vaccines.  He is wholly unsuitable for such a role.  Other appointments are slightly less controversial, but the key requirement is loyalty to Trump and parroting the Trump line.  The wildcard amongst the pack is the role of Elon Musk, or as Trump described him, “the Great Elon Musk”.  Musk has spent his way into the center of America power and is Trump’s cheerleader in chief for the moment.  Both Tesla and SpaceX have benefited tremendously from government contracts and subsidies yet he has now been named as co-head of the department of government efficiency.  Not an actual department but more an advisory role to try and cut 2 trillion USD of government expenditure.  The need to cut bloated departments, cut needless red tape and simplify tax codes and business regulations is needed and certainly appealing to many but to Trump and his court seem ready to slash and burn through a slew of consumer protections and rights in the name of efficiency.

How to respond?

Many countries would have preferred that Trump hadn’t won but he did.  There is no point wishing it away, nor indeed hoping that Trump won’t do as he says.  There is certainly reasons to think that this court of  yes men and women will be so chaotic that Trump will achieve very little but that cannot be counted upon.  Instead all countries will need to respond and be proactive in engaging with Trump.  What they will do needs to vary from country to country but a few examples will be illustrative.

Ukraine has already blinked with regards discussions with Russia and ceasing the hot war.  Trump has boasted that he can stop with war with 24 hours, but what that means he doesn’t spell out.  Stopping further support for Ukraine will indeed stop the war and hand a clear victory to Putin and an invitation to further expand across borders into former Soviet territories.  Trump stopping of war is solely to save America money, it has nothing to do with concern for the Ukrainians, nor for territorial integrity nor for punishing Putin.  To that end President Zelinsky has proposed, an admittedly unrealistic suggestion, that the war stop and the whole of Ukraine come under a NATO security umbrella with diplomatic discussions in the future to settlement the currently occupied lands.  It won’t work, and Trump nor Putin won’t agree but he needs to show he understands the US support is changing, and show willingness to at least move towards an agreement.

A related but different issue will be the existing NATO members increasing their defence spending.  Trump made pressed this issue during his first term yet many NATO states are still moving too slowly to increase defence spending.  That this is still not a primary concern of European members seems incredible given that there is now a hot war raging on mainland Europe.  Beyond defence the proposal global tariffs will hit the EU on a range of goods and services.  Global co-ordination of financial regulation, and environment and climate policies could be decimated it the more extreme voices around Trump have their way.  But for the EU perhaps the initial response is to respond with tariffs of their own but that could only lead to even more extreme measures towards the EU.  The poor UK is in an even worse position than the EU.  Trump’s mother was Scottish but that cuts no slack when it comes to trade.  With the UK outside of EU it is now a middling sized economy which little global clout and the historic special relation between the US and UK counts for very little with Trump.

In Asia there are clear security concerns around Taiwan and the increasing threat of  PRC military action.  Biden made it clear that America would stand with Taiwan but would Trump make such a commitment?  He has often spoken of his admiration for Xi Jinping and how Trump supports or fails Ukraine could have major implications for the region.

When it comes to trade though China is possibly in the worst of all places.  At present tariffs of 60% are slated for day 1 but surely more will come.  Marco Rubio, the appointee for Secretary of State is a well know China hawk, and the bi-partisan vilification of almost all things PRCs had only increased since Trump left office.  But it is with regards to China that Trump’s Great Elon Musk is most exposed.  Tesla has invested significantly in the country and he has tried repeatedly to curry favour with the Chinese leaders.  What distasteful comprises he will accept will be interesting to see.

Somewhat ironically Vietnam could find itself in the heart of the tariff battle as it’s trade deficit with the US has exploded since Trump left office.  Why?  Because much of the China manufacturing moved to Vietnam or at least expanded into Vietnam rather than China because of Trump’s decoupling drive!

For Japan they could be spared the full Trump wrath simply because there are easier targets to go after in the region yet a weak yen will be seen by Trump as an unfair advantage and like the EU state Trump will no doubt demand Japan shoulder a larger defence burden.

It is very easy to paint a very bleak and violent future in the coming decade.  Trump 2.0 will be instrumental in deciding that future.  A disengaged and disinterested America is an invitation to many dictators to trample on their own citizens and invade other territories.  Even if the worse scenarios projected from Trump 2.0 don’t come to pass then it remains essential for countries to get their own houses in order.  That encompasses a broad range of issues, defence spending including cyber security, energy security, domestic economic challenges, immigration, pension reforms and demographic driven health service changes.  All this requires serious people putting their country before their own interests.  Pining for the “good old days” is pointless.  Global financial structures and institutions are being strained like never before in peacetime.  Relying on America to defend the status quo is no longer a given.  The challenges posed by authoritarian China, Russian aggression and disinformation, climate change and environmental impact along with the inevitable migration of millions of people at the same time as many developed countries are aging and struggling to handle shifting demographics will require deft leadership.  How many countries have such leaders in place or are waiting in the wings ready to lead is far from certain.