Delivering on Low Expectations

We’ve had a fantastic relationship. We’ve gotten along. When there were difficulties, we worked it out. I would call you, and you would call me. And whenever we had a problem, people don’t know, whenever we had a problem, we worked that out very quickly.

Uh, we’re going to have a fantastic future together. Uh, such respect for China, the job you’ve done. Uh, you’re a great leader. I say it to everybody, you’re a great leader. Sometimes, people don’t like me saying it, but I say it anyway because it’s true. I only say the truth. And I just want to say, uh, behalf of all of the great delegation that we have, we have the greatest businessmen…

…. They, every single one of them, … and they’re here today to pay respects to you and to China, and they look forward to trade and doing business,…

Selected opening remarks from Donald Trump to Xi Jinping, May 2026

This is hardly the opening which one would expect of the President who said the United States greatest challenge was China.  It was Trump’s plain speaking about China in his first term that produced broad bi-partisan support for a tougher US policy towards China in economics, trade and security.  China remains perhaps the only issue which can unite the Republican and Democrat parties but ultimately Trump achieved little from his Beijing trip.  Now it must always be remembered that Trump lies continuously and will change his tune within the same sentence so perhaps all his flattering of Xi was purely to get better terms from the Chinese side especially regarding Iran.  Well, nothing came of it.  The Chinese side re-iterated that they would like to see the Straits of Hormuz open, it’s only closed because of Trump’s ill-conceived war.  And they promised not to send weapons to Iran although such a promise is of limited value as China routinely sends components to Iran and Russia which could certainly be used in weapons systems.  Before the war started China was Iran’s primary economic supporter, that hasn’t changed.  What has changed is that almost regardless of the eventual peace deal or armistice that is agreed, Iran, China’s partner has been strengthened.

The Chinese did say they would buy more US agricultural products and the two sides agreed to set up a Board of Trade to discuss non-sensitive trade issues, and a Board of Investment to discuss investment-related issues!  That is about all that has been disclosed from the White House on these issues.  But frankly, so what?  It has been Trump madcap trade policies and tariff stick which has resulted in a drop of US agricultural sales to China.  Neither of these boards will do anything to address the real tensions in the relationship.

Meanwhile Xi’s key concern was Taiwan. According to Xinhua, in the closed-door session Xi warned Trump, “If handled poorly, the two countries could collide or even enter into conflict, pushing the entire China-U.S. relationship into an extremely dangerous place.”  Secretary of State Rubio stated that US policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged after the meeting but Trump’s response may be best judged if he approves the pending $14 billion arms sales to Taiwan.

Within days of Trump’s departure from Beijing the same red carpet and soldiers were on duty again to welcome Vladimir Putin.  The back-to-back visit of the US and Russian presidents certainly shows China as the key relationship in great power politics but despite all the nice words of a new multipolar world order Putin failed to achieve any great successes either.  His goal was a formal Chinese commitment on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline but the Chinese refused to commit.  As the Ukraine war has dragged into its fifth year Russia has become ever more dependent on China both politically and economical.  Both leaders must delight in the wholesale damage Trump has caused to the United States reputation abroad and the gutting of domestic institutions but there are plenty of tensions between Russia and China that won’t go away.  Xi and Putin may speak of friendship but neither Xi, Putin nor Trump have friends.  They may recognize something of themselves in other leaders and the challenges and fears they face but there is nothing which an ordinary person would understand as friendship.

So, both Trump and Putin come away from Beijing with little to show for their flattery and friendship.  It is a clear reminder that Xi has his own plans for China’s future.  He has laid it out clearly again in his five-year plan, and it is a future which increases China’s self-sufficiency and other countries dependencies on China as a manufacturing center of lo- and hi-tech products and of key materials.

Losing the War

What would have been clear to Xi, even if it wasn’t to Trump, is that the United States has lost the war in Iran.  The blockade may be continuing and there might still be further bombing and strikes but the Iranian war has been a complete strategic failure for the United States.  Trump may now claim that the goal was to ensure Iran didn’t have a nuclear bomb but last year the US and Israel completely obliterated Iran’s nuclear capacity, or so Trump said.  The Israeli proposed strikes to take out the top Iranian leadership were successful, but they have failed to lead to any regime change and instead only entrenched hardline leadership in Tehran and proved that for minimal cost the Iranians could easily throttle the world economy by closing the Straits of Hormuz.

Instead of bringing change to Iran Trump’s mad war has fatality weakened US alliances, especially with European allies.  It has cause major economic shocks, especially to Asian partners.  It has strengthened Iran within the region, and it has wasted a huge amount of high tech military capacity which was needed to defend Taiwan.  It has also exposed how completely ineffective the US political system is with the Congress unable, because they are unwilling, to bring any oversight or check on the executive office of the President.  There simply is no going back to the world of pre-28 February 2026.  Pax Americana is dead.

At time of writing there is some degree of raised expectation that a ceasefire agreement is imminent.  And although Trump is desperate to get out of this war he has discovered that the Iranians won’t play along and continue to demand better terms.  Trump too faces pushback from long time Iranian hawks in the US who want Trump to “finish the job” (whatever that means isn’t clear) unless the Iranians capitulate to US terms.  Even the word agreement implies more than is likely.  The US side is only trying for a brief, one page memorandum of understanding to agree broad terms, details are for later.  Meanwhile the economic dislocation will continue well into 2028 given the disruption to supplies.

China the winner?

Trump’s desire to get out of Iran is real, he has clearly become fed up with it and wants to change the topic, but he hasn’t learnt any lessons from it.  Throughout Trump’s life he has never had to take responsibility for mistakes and whatever situation he has always found someone else to blame.  The tragic strategic loss in Iran is no different, he won’t take the blame.  He has now already started to prepare the groundwork for a military operation in Cuba and just in the past week he has posted again about threatening Greenland.  There is no indication that he will wind down military interventions although perhaps a minor comfort is that he will restrict activity to the American hemisphere.  Meanwhile as America cements its role as rogue superpower China appears ever more attractive as a stable pole in the developing world order.  As nations worry about what Trump will do next and how to respond to what he has already done this provides the PRC time to continue to develop its own military to project power in the South China Sea and Western Pacific as well and build resilience in its domestic economy and industries.

But is China really a winner from the chaos Trump is ushering in?  In some ways of course it is.  Global opinion polls show that China is seen as a more reliable power than the United States.  World leaders have flocked to Beijing in the past six months to agree new trade deals and strengthen ties as a counter to US tariffs.  Beijing hasn’t changed its message on any issue.  It continues to oppress its own citizens whether in Hong Kong, Tibet or Xinjiang.  It has now even started referring to Inner Mongolia as the Northern Frontier to minimize and ultimately eradicate the Mongolian language and culture.  It continues to subsidize its industries and dump products in overseas markets effectively hollowing out overseas manufacturing.  It still actively obtains, by fair means or foul, cutting-edge technology and scientific know-how.  It looks to impose economic sanctions especially via its chokehold on rare earth elements as a form of political leverage.  And as Xi’s recent remarks confirm, it has not given up its intention of taking over control of Taiwan even militarily.  That China is so appealing while maintaining all these policies goes to show how far the reputation of the USA has fallen under Trump’s wrecking ball.

Yet what cannot be dismissed is that China stands firmly behind both Russia and Iran.   Russia could not have withstood economic sanctions and the military innovation of the Ukrainians if they didn’t have the Chinese economic lifeline.  And Iran has been selling most of its limited oil production to China for the past few years.  Iran’s closing of the Straits is affecting Asian countries the most, but it is China which is Iran biggest backer so being frustrated and angry towards Iran is effectively a proxy for anger towards China.

China has provided support to Russia as a way of weakening the US but for the whole of 2026 the US has not provided any direct support to Ukraine, it has been the European nations which have stepped in to provide the bulk of support.  China therefore is supporting Russia’s war against Europe.  The European leaders have still to fully understand this and like to put the blame on Putin.  Putin has indeed a deep sense of injustice about the loss of the Russia empire but for the past few years he has been facilitated by China.  Putin’s recklessness has just been on display as numerous Russia drones have hit Romanian buildings and territory.  Romania is a NATO member, and the fear of a full NATO Russia war cannot be discounted.  Does China really want to be facilitating such a conflict while is tries to sweet talk the EU leaders to continue with business as usual?

Trump has presided over a series of US political and military defeats, one prominent historian has called it “superpower suicide”.  In response the world is casting aside 80 years of US led order and reverting to a historically familiar world of great powers yet China isn’t destined to succeed at all.  The PRC has for decades tried to have its cake and eat it.  It speaks fine words of peace but supports Russia and Iran.  It promised not to militarize the South China Sea then promptly did so.  It calls for sovereignty of nations but actively bullies countries economically and politically when they disagree with or question PRC policies.

There is no such thing as economic only relations with the PRC.  All engagement is political and as the US has become wholly reliable as a long term and dependable partner it is vital all other middle powers cooperate to face the very real threats that will come in a more disordered world.  China’s trajectory isn’t part of the solution; it’s been part of the problem.