The Spectacle

Of Donald Trump’s many roles in his long life the only one where he really was a success was as reality TV star in The Apprentice.  Playing the role of a billionaire property tycoon was far more successful than the sorry reality of a serial bankrupt who was notorious for failing to pay contractors and huge failed projects.  It is no surprise then that his second stint as President of the United States is truly a spectacle.  Every day is like another episode in some political comedy or drama.  The more outrageous his pronouncements the more entertaining the drama.  But this is not reality TV, it is just reality and there are real world impacts and harms.

Trump is clearly enjoying his return to the White House.  His deluge of executive orders, 66 signed up to 13 February, makes him look more like a monarch issuing proclamations rather than a president looking to get a legislative agenda through congress.  His willingness to engage at length with the media is refreshing especially compared to the highly reclusive Biden but Trump never shies from the spotlight.  Nothing is more stimulating to Trump than being center of attention.

But he doesn’t reign alone.  America, for the time being, seems to have a dual presidency, one elected, one un-elected.  Elon Musk, the South African born billionaire and primary financier of Donald Trump’s election campaign has seemingly free reign when it comes to gutting the federal government’s departments.  As Trump causes havoc internationally by bullying friends and allies torching American goodwill globally, his co-president Musk is doing the same domestically.  What America and the world will look like by the end of Trump’s reign is far from clear.

America’s Retreat

This column is largely focused on China and how to engage and deal with China.  It is not surprising then that so much of the discussion becomes focused on what will America do in an era of decoupling or disengagement.  China did get slapped with relatively minor tariffs of 10%on the 1 February and the scrapping of the de minimis limit for goods shipped into the US but beyond that it has hardly figured in Trump’s calculus.  Instead, Trump has chosen to vent his anger on his long-standing alliance partners and friends. 

Trump makes no mention of his own USMCA trade pact between the US, Mexico and Canada and instead repeatedly states that Canada should become the 51^st state, called Prime Minister Trudeau “Governor Trudeau” and said the country is unviable without “US subsidies”, i.e. Trump’s complete misunderstanding of America’s trade deficit.  Trump threatened 25% tariffs on both countries unless they did more on illegal immigration and drug flows into America and indeed within a day or so both countries had “agreed” to work with Trump to do more to stop both flows.  Trump claimed victory and postponed the tariffs for one month, but Canada and Mexico only really restated what they are already doing to work to limit drugs and people into the country.  Trump big stick threat of tariffs actually resulted in very little new action, but he could look strong and claim victory which of course plays well to his US MAGA base of supporters.  It really did look like a TV show episode with a quick resolution and Trump coming out on top.

So what is his tariff policy?  Is it a tool to raise revenue to pay down the national debt as he sometimes claims or it is a political big stick to gain (slight) political concessions from other countries?  It isn’t clear yet probably because Trump doesn’t know himself.  He loves the word tariff, and the game is far from over, his promotion of what he calls “reciprocal tariffs” which is not well defined seems not only to include actual border tariffs on US good entering a country but also includes domestic consumption taxes like VAT or sales taxes.  Trumps promises a country-by-country list of reciprocal taxes by 1 April and it will hit Europe especially hard where VAT is a key component of countries’ domestic fundraising tools.

But Trump’s torching of good relations with friendly countries isn’t just limited to Mexico and Canada.  He has threated to send troops to take over both the Panama Canal and also Greenland if he can’t buy it, wholly unconcerned that Greenland is not for sale and actually part of Denmark, a US NATO ally.  If those comments and plans weren’t remarkable enough his claim that the US would take over Gaza and move 2 million Palestinians out of the territory was met with horror, disbelief and surprise by nearly all.  Even right wing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was surprised although at the same time delighted that he effected had a green light to “clear out” Gaza.  To Trump Gaza was simply a strip of beachfront land ripe for development, the lives of those who live there doesn’t matter to him.

This then is what America First and Make America Great Again looks like in the international arena.  A country which bullies and threatens its friends and neighbors and doesn’t respect international norms or national sovereignty.  But the destruction had only started for Trump.  After claiming and failing to stop the Ukraine war within 24 hours, and indeed he originally claimed he could stop it before he was even inaugurated the past few days have seen the North Atlantic alliance of Europe and America thrown under the proverbial (Russian) bus.

Trump’s Vice President JD Vance startled his European “allies” by effectively threatening them not to regulate AI and by extension US companies but then a day later went on to lambast Europe countries as failing to support free speech and democracy.  That was only a prelude though to the announcement that the US and Russia would start to talk directly to end the Ukrainian war.  Talks would be bilateral, Ukraine wasn’t invited to take part, the Europeans weren’t invited to take part, this was Trump going it along and rehabilitating his buddy Putin.  Even before the talks started the US conceded significant Russian demands and in Trump’s most recent announcements has blamed Ukraine for starting the war!  Ukrainian President Zelenski stated far too politely that Trump was living in a “disinformation bubble”.  Lying would be a better word, but Trump has built his political career on lies and the more outrageous the lies the more his political base lap it up.

Only a few countries seem to have escaped the full Trump treatment for the moment.  In person meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba, and Indian Prime Minister Modi but were relatively positive as both countries talked up more US based investment and energy purchases.  Ishiba and Trump even agreed to stand together to counter Chinese aggression, but Trump doesn’t do friendship, he does deals.  What works today doesn’t necessarily work tomorrow.

What Do We Do Now?

Trump’s first month has caused anger and panic in the capitals of many of America’s traditional allies.  Russia and Beijing must be delighted by the discord sown by Trump but perhaps it is too early to really say what Trump’s effective policy will be.  But amongst the many lies and threats from Trump and his court there are some very real truths.  The most obvious is that Europe has spent far too little on its own defense for far too long.  That though was effectively the design of the NATO security framework, the US wanted to be and remain #1 when it came to military strength and few European countries would have wanted a militarily strong Germany after the conflicts of the 20^th century.  The modern world’s imbalances are largely a product of the US made world order.  Trump has now called time on that order and countries both in Europe and Asia need to respond accordingly.

The ripping up of established geopolitical ties and norms isn’t some accident, this is how Trump, and those behind him want to run US policy.  They are distrustful of alliances and overseas attachments.  It is no surprise that in the name of efficiency the first government department to be shut down under Musk’s DOGE program is USAID.  Humanitarian aid which has been instrumental in savings millions of lives through food and medical programs is scrapped under the mantra that it was all about “waste, fraud and abuse”.  But Musk has yet to show any actual evidence of such behavior and if there are such offences then there is a legal framework to bring those responsible to account.  Instead there are political slogans and bad decisions where the consequences have not been thought through.  As America First loses ground overseas Trump’s henchmen gut the federal government weakening the country from the inside.

Does Trump’s lack of focus on China really mean anything at this time?  Has his personal respect for Chairman Xi mean that he doesn’t consider China a threat or has Musk’s business interests in China influenced meant he will trend softly for now?  We can’t know, but regardless of his intentions towards China his current bull in a china shop approach to geopolitics and diplomacy means that Taiwan and other Asian allies should be very concerned about how they will be treated.  The long-established alliances with Europeans allies are being trampled underfoot, why should Trump treat Japan, South Korea or Australian any differently?  Trump has made the US into a very unreliable partner and Asian leaders should rethink how they engage with the US.  The old model has been broken and even if the worse case scenarios do not play out it is important that Asian governments don’t wait to respond.  Secretary of State Rubio has been a long-time critic of China and it could be tempting to see him taking the fight to China but Rubio has limited power and job security.  When it comes to the dual-presidency none can challenge them for the moment.  Even the congress where the republican party holds a majority in both houses have remained silent as their power is eroded before their eyes.  It is congress which decides how the federal money is spent yet Trump and Musk have overrode them time and again in the DOGE driven mania.

European governments, including the UK, are largely in shock after the events of the past week.  Whether they like it or not they need to rely more than ever on their own efforts when it comes to defense.  That will mean larger armies, more equipment and munitions being made locally to reduce foreign dependencies (including US dependencies) and a willingness to work together towards a common defense.  A joint European army is probably beyond the leaders for the moment, but better and closer cooperation is vital.  Ukraine has shown that the Russian threat is not as powerful as it was often thought to be, and Europe remains a large and prosperous grouping that can do more.  How can Asian countries not be considering similar steps?

Over the past few years, the big question posed by a rising and more adversarial China was whether to side with China or America.  That was a question that many Asian leaders didn’t want to face, and they pined for the status quo.  Now the question is even harder.  The US isn’t the partner it was just a few months ago.  All can be and will be traded away if it suits Trump to do a deal.  Asian countries have built remarkable economies and societies over the past 70 years under a US security umbrella.  Self-reliance, yet working together against common threats, is going to become more important.  Some very difficult discussions will need to be faced.  Some already call for South Korea to develop a nuclear bomb as defense against the North Korean threat, and if that happens then even Japan will likely need to follow.

Trump and Musk are proving they can bring down the established order without any plan for what comes next.  The world had already entered a dangerous time with Russia and China threatening and bullying their neighbors and trade partners, sadly and incredibly the US has only now added to the threats.